Journal of Energy Security

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CENRG

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Systemic Violence Threatens Middle East Oil Outlook

Even though there are vast, cheap reserves of oil and gas in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), political instability remains as the main barrier to exploration and production. The current oil slump has hurt investment worldwide, nevertheless the recovery period appears to favor investment in North America, the Caspian, and Africa. The OPEC report issued in late May noted that “generally speaking, for non-OPEC fields already in production, even a severe low price environment will not result in production cuts, since high-cost producers will always seek to cover a part of their operating costs.”

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Ukraine’s Tax Hike Will Strangle the Domestic Oil and Gas Sector

The Ukrainian government is threatening the future of its already struggling oil and gas sector by introducing new taxes. The royalty, which taxes output sales, together with the tax rates of 70% for state-owned production companies, 55% on wells under 5,000 meters depth, and 35% on wells over 5,000 meters will lead to a dramatic decrease in domestic production and increase Ukraine’s dependence on Russia. For Ukraine this is a question of survival as it cannot continue its dependence on Russian gas for geopolitical reasons and sending Western investors packing would be suicidal.
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US experts: Southern Gas Corridor critically important, crucial for Europe

As the military clash in Ukraine and the conflict between Russia and the West escalates, U.S. government top energy officials and leading experts on the South Caucasus energy and politics assembled at a Washington DC conference on “Security and Energy Implications for the South Caucasus after Ukraine.” The January 28th event was cosponsored by the Kennan Institute of the Wilson Center and the newly formed Center for Energy, Natural Resources, and Geopolitics (CENRG) at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.

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